Rest Easy Chicken Little
At the end of last year’s hurricane season there were dire predictions about the severity of this year’s crop of hurricanes. This year was supposed to be even worse than last year and it seemed like N.O.’s days were numbered. Well, just like the new ice age that was supposed to be coming but never quite made it (remember that in the mid to late ‘70’s), and the global warming hysteria going on now, (another joke) it seems like this year’s crop of hurricanes isn’t going to be as bad as the chicken littles told us it would be. Here’s the story. Let’s face the truth, making accurate long term predictions about climate and the weather just isn’t something we can do well yet.
posted by Murphy "Mac" Morphy at
11:48 AM
5 Comments:
Ya'll remember Al Duckworth. Use to get him drunk when I was tending bar in college. He always said that the farther you get out, the less acurate your forecast can be. I can tell you now what the weather will be like in the next hour. But telling you what it will be like next week, or next month or next year is a lot more difficult.
By
Philip Seymour Morphy, at Wed Aug 09, 12:51:00 PM CDT
Some of this is also regional. It's fairly easy to predict the weather in central Texas. Japan seems to be terrible. Yesterday I saw a 100% (yes, 100%) chance of rain today. By this morning it was lowered to 20% and now seems sunny and warm. I'm told the accuracy of predictions went down as they began to use computer models here. Modeling non-linear systems likeweather presents many problems related to accuracy.
By
Dr. Steven Morphy-Godchaux III, at Wed Aug 09, 11:08:00 PM CDT
The biggest typhoon to hit China since 1956 just came ashore: Super typhoon slams into China. I'd say calling global warming a myth puts you in the minority these days. Even the Bush adminstration has changed their stance on this one recently.
By
Dr. Steven Morphy-Godchaux III, at Thu Aug 10, 10:25:00 AM CDT
The issue I have with the global warming issue is that we humans are the cause. It may be that temperatures are increasing, but who's to say that this isn't part of a natural cycle that's been going on for hundreds of thousands or even millions of years. 20,000 years ago much of North America and Eurasia were under a sheet of ice. How far back does our reliable weather data extend - perhaps 100 years or so? Certainly not long enough to say that a 1 degree (fahrenheit) uptick in temperature is the result of human activity.
By
Murphy "Mac" Morphy, at Thu Aug 10, 11:40:00 AM CDT
I would sidestep this cause-effect question and say that maybe it is time for the human race to take an active role in these things. This as been the trend, and I agree with it. Remember taking fluorocarbons out of areosol cans and refrigeration equipment? Removing lead from gasoline? Taking cadmium out of rechargable batteries (well, the US hasn't gotten there yet, I guess). I think this sort of environmental management is a good thing. Pollution is the ultimate economic externality and ought to be dealt with in a free market economy.
By
Dr. Steven Morphy-Godchaux III, at Thu Aug 10, 08:09:00 PM CDT
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